Russia 'us top global nuclear threat' - with four times size of US nuke arsenal (2024)

Leaked papers warn Russia is becoming a safe 'sanctuary' by the West limiting Ukraine's weaponry and that Putin's threshold for a nuclear strike is 'much lower' than earlier thought

Ukraine's military believes Russia may have as many as 16,000 tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, possibly four times more than the US.

The Kremlin’s chilling nuke stockpile - possibly as many as 6,000 larger strategic bombs and 10,000 battlefield tactical weapons would make Russia the top global nuclear threat. And a leaked Ukrainian military assessment given to the Mirror reveals how President Vladimir Putin may have secretly reduced the threshold for a nuclear strike.

The document says: “Although the Russian leadership believes that it has surpassed the West militarily thanks to its superweapons, Moscow’s threshold for the use of military force in conflict situations will also continue to decrease.” And it suggests “Russian open source estimates of Russian reserves provide much higher estimates than Western ones.”

And it goes on to back Russian expert Sergei Rogov’s claim that “Russia’s strategic nuclear arsenal may number around 6,000 weapons, while estimates of Russia’s non-strategic nuclear weapons range from a few thousands to more than 10,000.” Strategic nuclear weapons are usually bigger, such as the “Little Boy” and “Fat Man” explosions used by the US on Hiroshima and Nagasaki respectively in 1945.

The tactical weapons are reserved for usually smaller yield military targets on the battlefield, possibly to hit the enemy hard but avoid fallout on friendly troops. Ukrainian military documents obtained by the Mirror warn the US administration is turning Russia into a safe “sanctuary” by restricting Ukraine’s targeting to within its borders.

And that restricting Ukraine’s ability to use Western-supplied weapons inside Russia could boost the ability of the Kremlin to threaten a nuke attack on Ukraine or a global nuclear war. It says: “Russia’s potential use of nuclear weapons is hampering Western efforts to provide aid to Ukraine.

“Russia’s nuclear threats are affecting the US administration, which has banned the supply of vital weapons and targeted aid to Ukraine’s armed forces, which it believes could lead to an escalation of a world war. However, the emphasis of the US administration on the risks of the Third World War, without taking measures to strengthen Russia’s deterrence, on the contrary, has increased the influence of threats of nuclear war from Russia.”

Only recently did US President Joe Biden agree Ukraine could use US-supplied weapons to hit inside Russia but only in defence of the north eastern city of Kharkiv. The Ukrainian military dossier says: “Turning Russian territory into a sanctuary, either by not providing Ukraine with the necessary weapons or by demanding guarantees to limit their use, plays into Putin’s hands.”

And it warns: “Russia has achieved nuclear superiority, which the Putin regime believes gives it leverage over the US and its allies. Putin will use nuclear weapons if he considers it in his interests.

“Leaked Russian documents and other open source information make it clear that Russia’s threshold for using nuclear weapons is much lower than previously thought. And the United States cannot rely on Russian compliance with the so-called ‘nuclear taboo.’ Moscow will use nuclear weapons when it considers it necessary for Russia’s national interests.”

The assessment by Kyiv argues Russia’s “escalate to de-escalate” doctrine means the likelihood of a Kremlin nuclear strike over Ukraine is more possible than previously thought. It warns Western totting up of Russia’s nuclear capability is inaccurate and that “most estimates of the current size and expansion plans of Russia’s nuclear forces are too low.”

In fact the Ukrainians fear Moscow has between two and four times the number of nuclear weapons as does the United States. According to the Ukrainan document It is thought the US has 3,750 active and inactive nuclear weapons, the latter being devices that are not deployed but could be made ready to use.

Russian policy dictates it can use nukes if there is:

1. Reliable data on the launch of ballistic missiles on Russia and - or - its allies

2. Unleashing of nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction on Russia or its allies

3. An attack on critically important Russian state or military facility which could undermine a nuclear weapons response. Or

4. Aggression against Russia using conventional weapons when Russia is under threat.

But false flag attacks - such as Russia preparing a chemical attack it can then blame on Ukraine, which was exposed by the US - could be a precursor for a Kremlin nuclear attack. That would, as far as Russia is concerned, be covered by regulation number two.

And regulation three means conventional attacks on Russian military facilities can be responded to with a nuclear strike. And the dossier highlights the fact that Putin’s now retired General Yuriy Baluyevsky, who penned Russia’s 2010 nuclear doctrine, also admitted not all of the Kremlin’s nuke attack conditions are made public.

There are secret thresholds for a pre-emptive attack. He admitted at the time: “... conditions for a pre-emptive nuclear strike . . . are determined by secret policy documents.” One of the UK’s leading experts on the Russian military, Bruce Jones, said: “Russia is doing the same as it has done earlier in Georgia as well as Ukraine; create an even further reaching nuclear umbrella under which it can perpetrate murderous acts of war, largely against the civilian population, without the fear of any form of meaningful conventional military retaliation.

“The Kremlin is holding Ukraine under threat from acting as any other country should do, when suffering naked military aggression and at the same time with her enemy intimidating all NATO nations, both in North America and in Western Europe from acting justly and proactively.

“Putin now seeks to have direct or indirect military victory against the collective West and have his name firmly printed in eternal Russian history. This equally very much suits Beijing’s military ambitions.

“Unlike the West, Russia is prepared if necessary, or if it is to its distinct advantage, to use nuclear weapons. It is impossible to know how Western governments, publics or electorates would respond to any limited, non-strategic nuclear weapon (NSNW) strike against a non-aligned country, or a more recently acceded NATO member nation; other than with mainly vocal outrage? For fear of retaliation, NATO and the EU are inhibited from responding like for like, against this potential “game-changing” strategic violent aggression.”