March Madness 2024 Predictions: Best Upset Picks for Every Region (2024)

Filling out a bracket for the 2024 men's NCAA tournament can require any level of difficulty that you choose, but upsets are an imperative part of the picks.

The chalk—in other words, the higher-seeded teams—will not always win. If you watch college basketball, that may seem obvious. However, we gladly welcome the thousands of you partaking in the annual tradition of "I don't know what I'm doing, but it's fun to do!" with a reminder that you actually might be best prepared to fill out a bracket.

Look, the word "Samford" may mean absolutely nothing to you. But, more importantly, "Kansas" does not, either.

Upsets are destined to happen, and nailing a few of those unlikely predictions is a great joy.

While the following picks are subjective, there's a mix of basketball insight and gut feelings. Ordinarily, I try to lean on statistics and trends. But this is, in fact, March Madness, and a small sample size can create incredible upsets for programs seeded 10th or worse.

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First-round upset: No. 12 UAB over No. 5 San Diego State

Strictly from a numbers perspective, UAB is a risky pick. San Diego State has an excellent defense, while UAB ranks 228th in effective field-goal percentage. However, the Blazers have been atypically hot lately. After shooting just 31.3 percent from three in the first 29 games, UAB has knocked down 40.9 percent of its perimeter shots as part of a five-game winning streak that earned the AAC's automatic bid.

Surprise Sweet 16 team: No. 10 Drake

Got offense, will travel? Drake takes on seventh-seeded Washington State in the opening round with a potential clash against No. 2 Iowa State over the weekend. Both are defense-driven teams, and a strength-on-strength clash is always a challenging pick. Led by 21.8-point star Tucker DeVries, Drake has four players averaging double figures and two others who average multiple assists. If the Bulldogs get hot, they'll be tough to stop.

First-round upset: No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech

For an obvious reason, NC State's season-long numbers are not good. The program opened the ACC tournament with a 17-14 record and seeded 10th in the conference. Five victories and a bid thievery later, the Wolfpack are dancing. They knocked off Duke, Virginia and North Carolina—three of the ACC's other four NCAA tourney teams—along the way, so a triumph over Texas Tech is completely realistic.

Surprise Sweet 16 team: No. 12 James Madison

James Madison has five players who attempt at least 3.4 triples per game and connect at a 35.3 rate or better. Fifth-seeded Wisconsin ranks 344th in three-point defense. Might be a bit of a problem for the Badgers, you know? No. 4 Duke would present a major challenge should it advance to the second round but isn't a defensive juggernaut, either. Believing in a JMU squad that won 31 games is not exactly a shocking idea.

First-round upset: No. 13 Samford over No. 4 Kansas

"Bucky Ball" is an entertaining watch. Samford coach Bucky McMillan has installed an aggressive high-tempo system that produces a ton of steals and three-pointers. Kansas certainly has more talent, but an average perimeter defense and nagging injuries to stars Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. are a concerning combo in fast-paced games.

Surprise Sweet 16 team: No. 9 TCU

No matter the opponent, creating havoc is generally a great way to win games. To upset Purdue, however, it's practically a necessity. The top-seeded Boilermakers have dropped only four contests this season, yet they committed 13-plus giveaways in each of those setbacks. TCU, meanwhile, ranks 18th nationally in steal rate and has forced 13-plus turnovers in 27 in its 33 games.

First-round upset: No. 12 Grand Canyon over No. 5 Saint Mary's

Relying solely on transitive results is not wise, but we can't simply ignore this one. Grand Canyon defeated San Diego State, and SDSU steamrolled Saint Mary's on a neutral floor. Yes, both results happened early in the season. Still, it's a straightforward explanation of why Grand Canyon deserves to be a popular upset pick.

Surprise Sweet 16 team: No. 11 New Mexico

Although the selection committee didn't love the Mountain West, the Lobos navigated a difficult road to steal an automatic bid. New Mexico upended Boise State, Colorado State and SDSU—all of which are in March Madness—to win the Mountain West tourney. During the regular season, UNM also toppled SDSU, Utah State, Nevada (twice) and CSU. Sixth-seeded Clemson and No. 3 Baylor are certainly beatable.